ESPN MLS Fantasy Guide: Week 4

Posted In Features - By Andrew Crollard On Tuesday, April 5th, 2011 With 2 Comments

It was requested that I do a 5-week outlook. So this week, I’ll do just that. I’ll use my usual statistical methods to give expected goals scored and average goals against. I will also add in parenthesis how many games a team is expected to concede less than 1 goal, to give a better idea how many clean sheets can be expected. I’ll also list how many games each team will play during the next 5 weeks so you can avoid those teams who have empty weeks and load up on those with doubles. Again, if you missed how the goals allowed and scored are calculated: I take the average goals scored and allowed both home and away from last year and this year combined.

Average Allowed Less than 1 allowed Total Scored Games
Chicago 1.7 2 8.3 6
Chivas 2.2 1 7.4 5
Colorado 1.8 1 13.6 6
Columbus 1.2 3 9.9 5
Dallas 1.3 1 7.8 5
DCU 2.1 0 7.2 6
Houston 1.3 2 12.8 6
LA 0.9 3 12.8 6
NE 1.9 0 9.7 5
Philly 2.2 0 7.5 5
POR 1.4 2 9.9 5
RBNY 1.3 2 11.8 5
RSL 0.7 3 13.0 5
Seattle 1.6 0 10.5 6
SJ 1.2 2 7.3 4
SKC 1.8 0 3.9 3
TFC 1.4 2 11.5 6
VAN 1.6 1 12.6 5

Since Sporting Kansas City only plays 3 games in the next 5 weeks, I would get rid of their players now since this is one of their 2 blank weeks. San Jose also has one blank week, but it isn’t until week 8. I would hold on to SJ players as they have 2 favorable matches against TFC and Chivas. I also am still avoiding Chivas, Philly, and selling my Dallas players.

Teams I plan to bring in players from: any team with doubles (6 games in the next 5 weeks) and RSL. I’m holding off on RSL for a week since they have CCL midweek and an away game to a New England side whose results have surprised me this season, but they are certainly a buy after that. I’m bringing in 2 to supplement the 1 that I already own.

Predicted goals scored:

VAN 4.7
Houston 2.2
Seattle 2.1
SJ 2.1
Dallas 2
NE 2
Chivas 1.9
LA 1.8
Philly 1.8
Chicago 1.6
Columbus 1.6
RBNY 1.3
Colorado 1.1
RSL 1.1
DCU 0.6

Vancouver and New England get automatic consideration for their double gameweeks. I will almost certainly captain a player from one of those two teams this time around. Seattle also have a favorable home match, and their numerous chances started to find the net in San Jose last week (which I witnessed firsthand). Speaking of San Jose, I’ll take them this week too with a very favorable home match against TFC, who have now lost their best field player to New York.

Predicted goals allowed:

LA 0.6
VAN 0.8
SJ 1
Dallas 1.1
NE 1.1
RSL 1.1
Houston 1.3
Philly 1.3
Chivas 1.6
Seattle 1.6
DCU 1.8
RBNY 1.8
Columbus 1.9
Colorado 2
Chicago 2.1
TFC 2.1

For Vancouver and New England, I only used their lowest goals against, but they both have doubles and are worth consideration. I think the best bet for a clean sheet this week will be San Jose, despite LA having a better average (DC’s offense is much better than the stats let on). Aside from that, it’s hard to say who might keep a clean sheet this week with our usual suspects on the road or facing good opposition. Though, I could see Houston and Seattle keeping the opposition out.

Captain rankings:

1.       Shalrie Joseph – New England has a double. Joseph is their star. Joseph gets the star.

2.       Eric Hassli – Vancouver’s offense has been surprisingly potent so far this season. Granted they haven’t played top opposition yet, but they are predicted to score twice as many as the next closest team. Hassli has looked good from what I’ve seen.

3.       Chris Wondolowski – His 12 straight goals for San Jose was broken against Seattle, but Wondo is still their key player.

4.       Fredy Montero – Seattle has created tons of chances. Montero has been extremely unlucky not to have scored yet due to a few keepers playing some of the best games of their lives. Seattle’s offense will come good and Montero is at the heart of it all.

5.       Omar Salgado – Another Vancouver player makes my list (mostly to inform the readers that he is eligible now). He got clearance to play and if he starts, could be in the points. I saw him play during preseason in the Cascadia Summit and he looked really good.

Team of the week:


Leitch, Parke, Leathers, Wingert

Joseph, Zakuani, Dawkins, Davis

Hassli, Wondolowski

Subs: Reis, Domi, Juninho, Montero

Total salary: 99.8


Looks like Reis and Davis are out injured this week. Cameron is the obvious replacement for Davis and Reis could be replaced by Zach Thornton (due to budget limitations and I don’t want to rework the rest of my team).

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  1. Teng Ai Hui says:

    I see that you have kept only 3 players from the team that you posted in the Week 3 guide. That’s 12 changes! Do you foresee any problems with the transfer limit?

    • The team of the week is based on a week to week basis. I’m not actually suggesting you try to use this team each week. I’m merely trying to give a tool for people to use for players to target for a transfer or two each week..

      I only have 5 of the players in my side that are in the team of the week due to your exact concerns about the transfer limit.

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